This is the 12th of 30 articles that will provide an analysis for every major league baseball team's projected OV/UN regular season wins total for the 2007 season. I will have a recommendation for each club with two levels of ranking. 1-star choices will be leans but not official play recommendations. 2-star rankings will be my strongest selections that I would recommend placing a wager on.
Houston Astros-OV/UN Regular Season Wins Total: 78 1/2 (Various Sportsbooks)
Last 3 seasons wins totals
2006-82
2005-89
2004-92
3-year average: 88
Lineup-Free agent Carlos Lee brings his power bat to the Astros lineup in 2007. Here's a look:
C-Brad Ausmus(37): Ausmus has never been known for his bat. He does an excellent job handling the pitching staff.
1B-Lance Berkman(31): Berkman is one of the most-underrated hitters in the game. He delivered a monster campaign (45 HR's, 136 RBI's) in 2006 without much support. Berkman will benefit from the presence of Carlos Lee in 2007.
2B-Craig Biggio(41): Biggio was still productive at age 40. He only needs 70 hits in 2007 to reach the 3000 mark. Biggio did hit a career-low .246 last season but he did manage to hit 21 HR's.
SS-Adam Everett(30): Like Ausmus, Everett doesn't provide much with the bat. The Astros are hoping that he can improve on last season's career-high of 59 RBI's.
3B-Morgan Ensberg(31): After a breakout season in 2005 (36 HR's, 101 RBI's), Ensberg regressed in 2006. After hitting 17 homers in the first two months of the season, Ensberg could only manage 6 more HR the rest of the season. He only had 58 RBI's for the season. His slump was probably the main factor that kept Houston out of the playoffs last season. The pressure will be lessened with Lee joining the middle of this lineup.
LF-Carlos Lee(30): Lee delivered career-highs in homers and RBI's last season while playing in Milwaukee and Texas. The combination of a short porch in left at Houston along with Berkman hitting next to him should enable Lee to have a 40 HR campaign with the Astros.
CF-Chris Burke(27): The converted infielder will be counted on for defense more than offense in 2007.
RF-Jason Lane(30): Lane mirrored Ensberg's off season in 2006. After providing 28 HR's in 2005, Lane had a dreadful 2006 with a .201 average and only 15 HR's. Left-handed bat Luke Scott will get some at-bats in the outfield after hitting .336 in 65 games last season.
Overall lineup outlook(7 right-handed batters and 1 switch-hitter): Houston's inability to produce consistent offense in 2006 (12th in NL in runs scored) kept them out of the post-season. Lee's addition will give the Astros the top power tandem in the league as he joins with Berkman in the middle of the Houston order. However, the rest of the lineup is pretty mediocre. Ausmus, Everett, and Burke don't hit for average or power. Biggio is no longer a threat to hit .300 at this stage of his career. Will Ensberg and Lane rebound to their form of 2005 or will they struggle again in 2007$%: Scott could be a sleeper in this lineup as a left-handed bat in a lineup that is over loaded with right-handed hitters. The Astros will be better with Lee in the mix but the improvement will likely be relatively small with the other question marks in the order.
Starting rotation-The Houston rotation has a vastly different look heading into 2007.
RHP-Roy Oswalt(29): A lack of run support was the only thing that kept Oswalt from a 3rd straight 20-win season in 2006. His 2.98 E.R.A. in 2006 marked the fourth time in six seasons that he has posted an E.R.A. of under three.
RHP-Jason Jennings(28): The Texas native will be counted on after coming over for the Rockies for CF Wily Tavares and two of Houston's top pitching prospects. Jennings will have to make the adjustment to Houston's ballpark after navigating his way around Coors Field. He doesn't have overpowering stuff but his ability to post a winning record in his tenure in Colorado is an indication of his craftiness.
RHP-Woody Williams(40): Williams pitched much better in his 30's than he did in his 20's. In this decade, Williams has won over 60% of his decisions with a solid record of 84-55. He will be pitching in his hometown in 2007. Williams isn't able to go deep into most games but he will give the Astros 5-6 quality innings in the majority of his outings.
LHP-Wandy Rodriguez(28): Rodriguez has been over matched in two big league campaigns with an E.R.A. of 5.58. He will need to get off to a respectable start in April and May to keep a spot in the rotation.
RHP-Ezequiel Astacio(27): Like Rodriguez, he hasn't been able to retire big league hitters in his brief major league career. Astacio only pitched seven big league innings last season after making 14 starts in 2005. He allowed a whopping 23 HR's in just 81 innings of pitching in 2005. Astacio will be on a short leash in 2007.
Overall rotation outlook: The Astros were caught by surprise when Andy Pettitte decided to head back to the Yankees. For the 2nd year in a row, Roger Clemens has left the club in limbo heading into spring training. If he does decide to pitch in mid-season, it might be for the Yankees or Red Sox instead of the Astros. Brandon Backe won't be available until about September after suffering a serious injury in May of last season. The good news is that Houston has a dominant number one with Oswalt. Jennings and Williams are capable but are certainly a notch or two below Clemens and Pettitte. The 4th and 5th spots are obviously huge concerns. This staff will not be a top 5 NL rotation. The Astros will likely be in the 10-12 range of NL starting staffs in 2007.
Bullpen-The Astros are very solid in setup relief but closer Brad Lidge is a concern.
Setup relief-RHP Dan Wheeler(29) delivered another solid campaign in 2006 with a 2.52 E.R.A. He had nine saves in a closing stint for the slumping Lidge. RHP Chad Qualls(28) is also an effective veteran middle reliever in the Astros pen. LHP Trevor Miller(33) supports the right-handers as a top flight lefty specialist for Houston. RHP Chris Sampson(28) and RHP Fernando Nieve(24) are in the mix for some middle relief work as well as some potential opportunities as 4th or 5th starters.
Closer-RHP Brad Lidge(30): Lidge appeared to lose some confidence after allowing a couple of dramatic home runs in the 2005 post-season. His E.R.A. increased by three full runs from 2.29 in 2005 to 5.28 last season. He still has overpowering stuff (104 K's in 75 IP last season). However, he was victimized by 10 homers and some wildness. Without a big year from Lidge, the Astros will have a difficult time being more than a .500 team in 2007.
Overall pitching outlook: The Astros won't be able to match last season's number two NL ranking in E.R.A. in 2007. This staff will probably sneak into the top half of NL E.R.A. rankings in 2007. The bullpen is very good and it could be outstanding if Lidge can return to his prior form. The 4th and 5th spots will likely be problem areas throughout the season unless Clemens returns to provide depth to the rotation. Houston will be a middle of the road NL pitching staff in 2007.
Final recap and recommendation: The Houston organization is very sound. The Astros have had only 1 losing season in the last 14 years. There is a winning environment in play for this club. Houston's woeful offense from a year ago has clearly been improved with the addition of Lee to the middle of the lineup. The pitching staff has slipped but it is still respectable. While expectations aren't high, this team shouldn't be counted out. If the young pitchers are able to produce at the back end of the rotation, this squad could be in the middle of the playoff chase. Houston will probably fall short of playoff contention in 2007 but the nucleus of this team is still solid enough to win at least 80 games.
OVER 78 1/2 WINS: * 1-Star
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